KCMH / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

85%

78%

57%

28%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

EPSNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.30u · EPS −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	45.2%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	3.6%	41.9%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	52.8%	14.5%	6.3%	—	19.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	63.6%	54.4%	27.9%	45.6%	29.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	53.7%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	77.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	76.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	76.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	71.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	68.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗