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KCMH / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
54%
WN2
35%
ICON
16%
EPS
14%
HRES
5%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 29.5¢Risks 29.50u
VS
HRESNO 70.5¢Risks 70.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.50u · HRES −70.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 22.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.1%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%———0.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:004.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.4%———9.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0018.2%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.4%———5.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:009.3%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0015.6%———4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.7%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.5%———6.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0010.5%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0036.4%———7.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0053.2%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0039.5%———9.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0015.2%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0036.4%———9.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0036.9%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0033.4%———11.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0027.1%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0038.6%———11.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0028.3%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0022.5%———7.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0045.4%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0030.3%—1.6%—9.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0019.7%—19.3%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:004.4%———6.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.5%—0.3%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.5%—33.0%—4.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.4%—12.4%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0020.2%—1.1%—4.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.5%—7.9%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0030.6%0.7%4.3%22.3%3.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0032.0%—2.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single54%74.1°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 235%71.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON16%63.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend15%66.0°F7.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble14%69.2°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%62.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261027-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗