KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

88%

79%

76%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.5¢Risks 87.50u

HRESNO 12.5¢Risks 12.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.50u · HRES −12.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	30.8%	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	68.7%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	50.6%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	10.2%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	84.2%	31.1%	59.7%	—	72.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	94.3%	51.5%	76.8%	—	78.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	89.3%	59.8%	91.3%	—	75.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	95.2%	75.8%	86.9%	—	74.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	42.7%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	96.2%	93.2%	65.5%	—	72.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	85.8%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	81.6%	94.1%	70.9%	—	40.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	69.0%	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	67.0%	91.7%	40.0%	—	37.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	68.2%	86.3%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	79.7%	85.8%	54.9%	—	48.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	78.1%	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	83.0%	78.8%	68.8%	—	60.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	86.2%	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	78.7%	56.5%	72.7%	—	39.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	81.7%	66.4%	2.1%	—	56.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	81.7%	75.8%	81.0%	—	66.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	86.1%	80.1%	83.3%	—	72.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	90.0%	84.9%	88.8%	46.3%	72.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	86.5%	88.5%	90.8%	—	75.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	87.4%	92.1%	95.0%	47.3%	79.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	92.9%	91.9%	86.8%	—	79.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	94.9%	95.6%	88.5%	57.2%	81.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	94.4%	96.8%	89.5%	—	77.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	93.9%	94.3%	89.8%	50.0%	73.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	96.9%	97.2%	91.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	63.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	97%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0009
IFS Ensemble	88%	60.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0135
National Blend	87%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0164
ICON	79%	59.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0454
IFS HRES	76%	59.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0586
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗