KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

72%

67%

33%

32%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

HRESNO 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.85u · HRES −42.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	16.9%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	50.6%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	31.8%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	3.8%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	68.3%	15.3%	38.9%	—	52.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	84.8%	30.4%	57.3%	—	59.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	74.9%	37.2%	78.4%	—	54.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	85.5%	54.0%	69.8%	—	52.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	21.2%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	87.5%	80.5%	40.9%	—	49.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	66.6%	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	59.6%	81.6%	45.6%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	42.9%	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	40.0%	75.6%	17.2%	—	15.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	40.6%	64.8%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	53.9%	63.4%	27.1%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	51.0%	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	57.2%	51.0%	38.8%	—	30.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	61.5%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	48.9%	25.5%	41.3%	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	52.2%	33.6%	0.2%	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	51.2%	43.0%	50.0%	—	33.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	57.2%	47.6%	52.4%	—	38.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	63.4%	53.7%	61.1%	15.1%	36.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	55.1%	59.0%	63.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	55.4%	65.7%	73.9%	14.1%	42.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	66.2%	63.7%	52.8%	—	41.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	70.7%	73.2%	54.3%	18.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	67.5%	76.4%	54.5%	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	63.9%	65.4%	53.2%	11.7%	29.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	73.3%	74.6%	54.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	63.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0299
ICON	72%	62.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0790
AIFS Single	67%	61.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1102
National Blend	62%	61.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1429
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	33%	57.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4502
IFS HRES	32%	57.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4679

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗