KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

68%

39%

20%

19%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.0¢Risks 44.00u

HRESNO 56.0¢Risks 56.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.00u · HRES −56.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	10.3%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	38.2%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	21.2%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	1.7%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	54.9%	8.5%	26.3%	—	38.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	74.6%	18.9%	42.7%	—	44.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	61.3%	23.9%	65.6%	—	39.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	74.5%	38.2%	54.8%	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	11.4%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	76.8%	67.0%	25.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	50.0%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	42.2%	67.8%	29.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	26.4%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	23.7%	59.1%	7.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	23.8%	46.2%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	34.8%	44.2%	13.6%	—	10.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	31.7%	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	36.9%	31.2%	21.2%	—	15.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	40.6%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	28.2%	11.4%	22.1%	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	30.5%	16.1%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	28.9%	22.4%	28.0%	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	33.6%	25.3%	29.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	38.9%	29.8%	36.5%	4.9%	16.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	33.7%	38.5%	—	17.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	29.5%	39.4%	48.7%	4.0%	19.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	39.0%	36.3%	26.5%	—	18.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	42.8%	45.7%	26.8%	5.1%	18.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	38.1%	48.5%	26.0%	—	12.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	33.1%	34.6%	23.8%	2.4%	8.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	43.4%	24.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	63.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0955
WeatherNext 2	68%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1050
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	45%	61.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2992
ICON	39%	60.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3770
IFS Ensemble	20%	57.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.6480
IFS HRES	19%	57.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.6577

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗