KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

68%

39%

20%

19%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.0¢Risks 44.00u

HRESNO 56.0¢Risks 56.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.00u · HRES −56.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:00+00:00	50.0%	19.5%	65.7%	18.9%	56.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	50.0%	19.5%	65.7%	18.9%	56.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	50.0%	19.5%	65.7%	18.9%	56.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	50.0%	19.5%	56.4%	18.9%	56.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	50.0%	19.5%	56.4%	18.9%	56.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	50.0%	19.5%	56.4%	18.9%	56.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	65.2%	19.5%	56.4%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	65.2%	19.5%	56.4%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	65.2%	19.5%	56.4%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	65.2%	19.5%	56.4%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	65.2%	19.5%	56.4%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	65.2%	19.5%	67.6%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	65.2%	19.5%	67.6%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	65.2%	19.5%	67.6%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	69.1%	19.5%	67.6%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	69.1%	19.5%	67.6%	18.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	69.1%	19.5%	67.6%	18.9%	38.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	63.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0955
WeatherNext 2	68%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1050
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	45%	61.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2992
ICON	39%	60.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3770
IFS Ensemble	20%	57.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.6480
IFS HRES	19%	57.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.6577

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗