KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≤ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

30%

27%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

WN2NO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.10u · WN2 −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:08+00:00	34.0%	29.7%	9.5%	61.0%	22.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:32+00:00	34.0%	58.4%	11.3%	61.0%	22.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	34.0%	58.4%	11.3%	61.0%	22.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	34.0%	58.4%	11.3%	61.0%	22.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	25.7%	58.4%	11.3%	61.0%	22.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	25.7%	58.3%	11.3%	61.0%	21.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:00+00:00	25.7%	56.5%	11.3%	61.0%	21.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	25.7%	56.5%	11.3%	61.0%	21.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	25.7%	56.5%	11.3%	61.0%	21.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	25.7%	56.5%	16.7%	61.0%	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	25.7%	56.5%	16.7%	61.0%	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	25.7%	56.5%	16.7%	61.0%	21.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	14.8%	56.5%	16.7%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	14.8%	56.5%	16.7%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	14.8%	56.5%	16.7%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	14.8%	56.5%	16.7%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	14.8%	56.5%	16.7%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	14.8%	56.5%	10.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	14.8%	56.5%	10.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	14.8%	56.5%	10.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	12.5%	56.5%	10.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	12.5%	56.5%	10.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	12.5%	56.5%	10.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	12.5%	56.5%	10.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	12.5%	56.5%	10.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	12.5%	56.5%	7.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	12.5%	56.5%	7.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	12.5%	56.5%	7.3%	61.0%	37.0%
2026-10-15T07:48:55+00:00	11.7%	56.5%	7.3%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	11.7%	56.5%	7.3%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00	11.7%	56.5%	7.3%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00	11.7%	56.5%	7.3%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	11.7%	56.5%	7.3%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:05+00:00	11.7%	56.5%	6.1%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	11.7%	56.3%	6.1%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	11.7%	56.3%	6.1%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	8.4%	56.3%	6.1%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	8.4%	56.3%	6.1%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00	8.4%	51.1%	6.1%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	8.4%	51.1%	6.1%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	8.4%	51.1%	2.5%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	8.4%	51.1%	2.5%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:53+00:00	8.4%	51.1%	2.5%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	8.4%	51.1%	2.5%	55.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	2.5%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	2.5%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	2.5%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	2.5%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	5.1%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	5.1%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	9.9%	51.1%	5.1%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	12.1%	51.1%	5.1%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	12.1%	51.1%	5.1%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	12.1%	51.1%	5.1%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	12.1%	51.1%	5.1%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	12.1%	51.1%	5.1%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	12.1%	51.1%	6.5%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:48+00:00	12.1%	51.1%	6.5%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	12.1%	51.1%	6.5%	40.3%	27.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	12.9%	51.1%	6.5%	40.3%	43.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	12.9%	51.1%	6.5%	40.3%	43.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	12.9%	51.1%	6.5%	40.3%	43.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	12.9%	51.1%	6.5%	40.3%	43.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	12.9%	51.1%	6.5%	40.3%	43.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:04+00:00	12.9%	59.5%	9.8%	40.3%	43.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	12.9%	59.5%	9.8%	40.3%	43.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	12.9%	59.5%	9.8%	40.3%	43.3%
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	9.2%	59.5%	9.8%	51.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	9.2%	59.5%	9.8%	51.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	9.8%	51.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	9.8%	51.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	9.8%	51.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	4.7%	51.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	4.7%	51.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	4.7%	51.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	11.4%	58.3%	4.7%	51.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	11.4%	58.3%	4.7%	51.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	11.4%	58.3%	4.7%	51.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	11.4%	58.3%	4.7%	51.9%	41.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	11.4%	58.3%	4.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	11.4%	58.3%	5.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	11.4%	58.3%	5.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	11.4%	58.3%	5.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	5.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	5.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	5.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	5.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	5.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	5.7%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	3.8%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	9.2%	58.3%	3.8%	39.4%	41.1%
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00	9.0%	58.3%	3.8%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	9.0%	58.3%	3.8%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	9.0%	58.3%	3.8%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	9.0%	58.3%	3.8%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	9.0%	58.3%	3.8%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	9.0%	28.8%	4.3%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	9.0%	28.8%	4.3%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	9.0%	28.8%	4.3%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	8.6%	28.8%	4.3%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	8.5%	29.2%	4.3%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	8.5%	26.6%	4.3%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	8.5%	26.6%	4.3%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	8.5%	26.6%	4.0%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	8.5%	26.6%	4.0%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	8.5%	26.6%	4.0%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	8.5%	26.6%	4.0%	43.6%	41.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	9.8%	26.6%	4.0%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	9.8%	26.6%	4.0%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	9.8%	26.6%	4.0%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	9.8%	26.6%	4.0%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	9.8%	26.6%	3.7%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	9.8%	26.6%	3.7%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	9.8%	26.6%	3.7%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	9.8%	26.6%	3.7%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	7.0%	26.6%	3.7%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	7.0%	26.6%	3.7%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	7.0%	26.6%	3.7%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	7.0%	26.6%	3.7%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	7.0%	26.6%	2.9%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	7.0%	26.6%	2.9%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	7.0%	26.6%	2.9%	29.5%	48.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	7.0%	26.6%	2.9%	29.5%	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	49%	58.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
NWS forecast	41%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	30%	60.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
IFS Ensemble	27%	60.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0708
National Blend	25%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
AIFS Single	7%	64.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0049
WeatherNext 2	3%	64.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 58°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-LE58
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Washington stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 58°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗