KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≤ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

30%

27%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

WN2NO 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.10u · WN2 −74.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	79.0%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	43.1%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	62.2%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	94.6%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	25.7%	80.1%	54.2%	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	11.3%	62.9%	35.7%	—	33.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	19.5%	55.3%	16.4%	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	10.4%	38.2%	23.6%	—	39.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	72.4%	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	8.7%	14.3%	50.8%	—	42.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	26.0%	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	32.2%	13.1%	45.6%	—	75.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	48.2%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	50.9%	17.8%	76.3%	—	78.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	50.0%	26.9%	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	36.6%	27.9%	64.3%	—	70.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	39.1%	25.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	33.0%	38.8%	51.0%	—	60.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	28.8%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	40.3%	64.9%	47.8%	—	79.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	36.7%	55.6%	99.5%	—	65.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	37.4%	45.4%	38.5%	—	55.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	31.4%	40.5%	35.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	25.6%	34.2%	27.6%	76.4%	51.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	32.5%	29.1%	24.8%	—	48.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	31.9%	23.0%	16.5%	77.0%	44.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	22.1%	24.2%	33.8%	—	44.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	18.2%	16.3%	31.8%	70.7%	42.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	20.2%	13.6%	31.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	22.6%	21.4%	31.7%	78.6%	56.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	15.0%	14.1%	29.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	49%	58.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
NWS forecast	41%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	30%	60.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
IFS Ensemble	27%	60.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0708
National Blend	25%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
AIFS Single	7%	64.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0049
WeatherNext 2	3%	64.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 58°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-LE58
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Washington stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 58°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗