KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

96%

92%

50%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.9¢Risks 74.90u

EPSNO 25.1¢Risks 25.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.10u · EPS −25.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	95.6%	50.0%	98.2%	50.9%	93.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	95.6%	50.0%	98.2%	50.9%	93.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	95.6%	50.0%	98.2%	50.9%	93.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	95.6%	50.0%	99.7%	50.9%	93.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	95.6%	50.0%	99.7%	50.9%	93.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	95.6%	50.0%	99.7%	50.9%	93.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	97.6%	50.0%	99.7%	50.9%	96.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	97.6%	50.0%	99.7%	50.9%	96.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	97.6%	50.0%	99.7%	50.9%	96.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	97.6%	50.0%	99.7%	50.9%	96.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	97.6%	50.0%	99.7%	91.7%	96.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	97.6%	50.0%	99.8%	91.7%	96.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	97.6%	50.0%	99.8%	91.7%	96.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	97.6%	50.0%	99.8%	91.7%	96.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	98.5%	50.0%	99.8%	91.7%	96.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	98.5%	50.0%	99.8%	91.7%	96.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	98.5%	50.0%	99.8%	91.7%	96.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	98.5%	50.0%	99.8%	91.7%	96.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	68.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	96%	66.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	65.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	61.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	59.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗