KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

96%

92%

50%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.9¢Risks 74.90u

EPSNO 25.1¢Risks 25.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.10u · EPS −25.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	3.5%	—	—	85.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	64.6%	—	—	88.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	46.0%	88.2%	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	51.4%	87.0%	60.4%	—	84.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	90.7%	83.0%	94.5%	—	84.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	93.5%	97.2%	92.2%	—	84.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	94.3%	96.6%	61.0%	—	69.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	10.6%	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	85.2%	95.7%	23.8%	—	59.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	71.9%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	91.0%	89.5%	4.3%	—	65.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	89.6%	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	93.0%	87.6%	82.2%	—	61.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	90.8%	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	90.6%	66.1%	79.7%	—	31.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.7%	94.0%	2.8%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	94.8%	67.0%	86.1%	—	77.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	96.7%	87.9%	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	93.4%	91.5%	95.3%	0.0%	90.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	94.3%	95.8%	2.4%	—	94.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	94.6%	96.2%	98.5%	73.0%	94.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	98.0%	94.2%	98.6%	—	94.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	98.2%	96.7%	98.8%	0.0%	95.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	97.2%	97.2%	98.5%	—	92.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	97.4%	97.2%	97.6%	78.0%	95.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.2%	98.0%	98.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.0%	98.8%	98.7%	96.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	68.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	96%	66.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	65.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	61.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	59.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗