KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

90%

88%

82%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.5¢Risks 45.27u

ICONNO 9.5¢Risks 4.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.73u · ICON −4.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	51.9%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	33.0%	80.2%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	37.6%	78.1%	46.5%	—	74.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	83.0%	72.2%	89.0%	—	74.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	87.1%	93.7%	84.9%	—	73.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	88.1%	92.2%	45.2%	—	54.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	4.9%	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	73.5%	90.3%	12.9%	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	56.0%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	81.6%	79.2%	1.6%	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	79.1%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	84.5%	75.6%	67.8%	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	80.4%	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	79.7%	47.1%	63.4%	—	16.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	85.4%	0.8%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	86.6%	46.9%	71.5%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	90.4%	73.8%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	83.1%	79.4%	86.9%	0.0%	77.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	84.6%	87.7%	0.5%	—	84.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	84.7%	88.4%	94.3%	51.2%	84.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	92.6%	83.3%	94.5%	—	84.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	92.9%	88.8%	94.8%	0.0%	85.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	89.7%	89.7%	93.6%	—	79.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	89.9%	89.3%	90.5%	54.0%	84.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	95.7%	91.3%	91.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	94.5%	93.7%	93.2%	87.0%	88.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.0%	93.0%	95.9%	92.0%	—	82.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	97.1%	97.8%	94.3%	91.7%	87.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	99.7%	99.8%	98.7%	—	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	96%	68.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0016
IFS HRES	90%	66.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0096
IFS Ensemble	88%	65.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0135
ICON	82%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0335
National Blend	64%	63.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1332
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗