KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

90%

88%

82%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.5¢Risks 45.27u

ICONNO 9.5¢Risks 4.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.73u · ICON −4.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00	91.8%	60.0%	96.2%	57.9%	88.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	91.8%	60.0%	96.2%	57.9%	88.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	91.8%	60.0%	98.7%	57.9%	88.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	91.8%	60.0%	98.7%	57.9%	88.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	91.8%	60.0%	98.7%	57.9%	88.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	91.8%	60.0%	98.7%	57.9%	88.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	83.7%	60.0%	98.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	83.7%	60.0%	98.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	83.7%	60.0%	98.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	83.7%	60.0%	98.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	83.7%	60.0%	95.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	83.7%	60.0%	95.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	83.7%	60.0%	95.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	91.2%	60.0%	95.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	91.2%	60.0%	95.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	91.2%	60.0%	95.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	91.2%	60.0%	95.7%	67.7%	89.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	97.1%	88.4%	99.2%	88.4%	81.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	97.1%	88.4%	99.2%	88.4%	81.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	97.1%	88.4%	99.5%	88.4%	81.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	97.1%	88.4%	99.5%	88.4%	81.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	97.1%	88.4%	99.5%	88.4%	81.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	97.1%	88.4%	99.5%	88.4%	81.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	95.8%	88.4%	99.5%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	95.8%	88.4%	99.5%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	95.8%	88.4%	99.5%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	95.8%	88.4%	99.5%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	95.8%	88.4%	99.4%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	95.8%	88.4%	99.4%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	95.8%	88.4%	99.4%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	95.8%	88.4%	99.4%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	96.0%	88.4%	99.4%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	96.0%	88.4%	99.4%	90.2%	81.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	96.0%	88.4%	99.4%	90.2%	81.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	96%	68.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0016
IFS HRES	90%	66.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0096
IFS Ensemble	88%	65.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0135
ICON	82%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0335
National Blend	64%	63.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1332
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗