KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.1¢Risks 4.03u

EPSNO 92.0¢Risks 45.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.98u · EPS −45.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	3.1%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	2.1%	0.2%	—	1.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.4%	0.9%	4.4%	—	1.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.7%	6.3%	2.1%	—	0.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.2%	3.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	2.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	70.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0225
WeatherNext 2	10%	71.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0098
IFS HRES	7%	67.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0046
AIFS Single	6%	69.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0032
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0006
IFS Ensemble	1%	65.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0001
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 22:59 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗