WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
15%
WN2
10%
HRES
7%
AIFS
6%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 8.1¢Risks 4.03u
VS
EPSNO 92.0¢Risks 45.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.98u · EPS −45.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:0010-12 22:5910-13 05:0110-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:005.1%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:005.1%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:005.1%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:005.1%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:005.7%1.1%9.9%6.8%15.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:005.7%1.1%9.9%6.8%15.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:005.7%1.1%9.9%6.8%15.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:005.7%1.1%9.9%6.8%15.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON15%70.2°F7.0°F2026-10-13 00:000.0225
WeatherNext 210%71.1°F5.0°F2026-10-12 18:000.0098
IFS HRES7%67.7°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0046
AIFS Single6%69.1°F5.3°F2026-10-13 00:000.0032
NWS forecast2%66.0°F5.8°F2026-10-13 03:000.0006
IFS Ensemble1%65.4°F5.3°F2026-10-12 00:000.0001
National Blend<1%66.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 22:59 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗