KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

95%

89%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.5¢Risks 47.27u

HRESNO 5.4¢Risks 2.72u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +2.72u · HRES −2.72u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	73.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	84.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	73.6%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	87.7%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	30.6%	90.7%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	92.6%	89.5%	43.7%	—	81.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	91.8%	85.2%	60.1%	—	69.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	94.0%	88.6%	33.0%	—	60.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	92.2%	80.0%	82.1%	—	66.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	18.4%	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	96.2%	84.8%	73.5%	—	63.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	91.2%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	96.2%	85.4%	77.9%	—	40.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	94.8%	85.0%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	94.2%	90.6%	96.1%	—	82.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	91.2%	89.6%	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	91.8%	88.4%	92.1%	—	86.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	89.0%	91.6%	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	85.5%	92.2%	88.2%	0.1%	82.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	88.4%	92.8%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	95.0%	94.4%	94.7%	—	82.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	94.3%	92.5%	3.1%	—	83.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	95.2%	95.2%	92.4%	0.0%	84.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	97.3%	96.5%	93.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	98.2%	97.7%	96.0%	91.5%	88.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	97.2%	98.1%	94.4%	—	88.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	98.0%	98.7%	93.9%	92.1%	88.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.4%	99.2%	96.5%	—	92.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	99.7%	98.2%	98.1%	94.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	99.8%	98.2%	—	92.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	74.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	68.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	95%	69.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	84%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗