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KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
>99%
EPS
97%
ICON
95%
HRES
89%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 94.5¢Risks 47.27u
VS
HRESNO 5.4¢Risks 2.72u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +2.72u · HRES −2.72u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.4% · 2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.4% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.0% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 90.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00ICON: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:0099.6%52.4%100.0%90.0%96.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:0099.6%52.4%100.0%90.0%96.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:0099.6%52.4%100.0%90.0%96.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:0099.6%52.4%100.0%90.0%96.0%
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:0099.6%52.4%100.0%89.1%94.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0099.6%52.4%100.0%89.1%94.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:0099.6%52.4%100.0%89.1%94.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0099.6%52.4%100.0%89.1%94.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0099.6%52.4%100.0%89.1%94.7%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:0099.6%97.0%100.0%89.1%94.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:0099.6%97.0%100.0%89.1%94.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:0099.6%97.0%100.0%89.1%94.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:0099.6%97.0%100.0%89.1%94.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0099.6%96.6%100.0%89.1%94.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%75.7°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single>99%74.7°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble97%68.6°F2.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON95%69.9°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES89%69.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend84%68.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%64.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗