KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

94%

81%

58%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.1¢Risks 78.15u

EPSNO 21.9¢Risks 21.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.85u · EPS −21.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	62.4%	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	79.8%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	19.8%	83.7%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	86.3%	81.6%	30.5%	—	70.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	84.8%	75.1%	45.6%	—	55.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	87.8%	79.5%	20.5%	—	45.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	84.6%	67.0%	69.8%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	9.5%	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	91.3%	72.8%	58.3%	—	46.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	82.2%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	91.0%	73.1%	62.9%	—	24.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	87.9%	72.1%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	86.7%	80.4%	90.2%	—	68.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	81.0%	78.3%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	81.7%	76.0%	82.3%	—	73.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	76.6%	81.0%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	70.6%	81.7%	74.9%	0.0%	66.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	74.7%	82.4%	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	86.3%	85.1%	85.7%	—	64.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	84.6%	81.0%	0.8%	—	66.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	86.0%	86.0%	80.1%	0.0%	66.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	90.8%	88.6%	82.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	92.9%	91.5%	87.0%	77.3%	72.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	89.7%	92.3%	82.6%	—	70.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	91.6%	93.9%	80.9%	77.0%	70.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	96.5%	95.7%	86.8%	—	77.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	98.8%	97.7%	91.6%	91.1%	80.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	98.3%	90.8%	—	74.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	73.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	74.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	94%	74.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	70.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	66.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗