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KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
AIFS
96%
ICON
94%
HRES
81%
EPS
58%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 78.1¢Risks 78.15u
VS
EPSNO 21.9¢Risks 21.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.85u · EPS −21.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00IFS HRES: 73.3% · 2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0010-15 15:3310-15 21:3610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:0089.8%58.5%97.1%73.3%90.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:0089.8%58.5%97.1%73.3%90.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:0089.8%58.5%98.6%73.3%90.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:0089.8%58.5%98.6%73.3%90.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:0089.8%58.5%98.6%73.3%90.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:0089.8%58.5%98.6%73.3%90.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:0085.2%58.5%98.6%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:0085.2%58.5%98.6%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:0085.2%58.5%98.6%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:0085.2%58.5%98.6%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:0085.2%58.5%97.8%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:0085.3%58.5%97.8%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:0085.3%58.5%97.8%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:0095.9%58.5%97.8%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:0095.9%58.5%97.8%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:0095.9%58.5%97.8%80.6%93.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0095.9%58.5%97.8%80.6%93.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%73.8°F4.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single96%74.1°F5.0°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON94%74.7°F6.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS HRES81%70.5°F5.8°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble58%66.4°F4.2°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend56%66.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.2°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗