KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

49%

49%

40%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

EPSNO 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.20u · EPS −32.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	43.7%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	63.4%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	8.8%	68.2%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	71.4%	64.4%	14.9%	—	50.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	68.3%	55.1%	25.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	72.4%	59.8%	8.1%	—	24.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	66.3%	43.6%	46.8%	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	2.7%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	76.8%	49.2%	33.8%	—	23.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	61.0%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	75.2%	48.2%	37.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	69.0%	46.4%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	66.1%	56.4%	72.6%	—	41.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	56.6%	52.8%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	56.8%	49.0%	57.7%	—	46.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	49.0%	55.0%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	40.8%	55.1%	45.9%	0.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	44.7%	55.3%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	60.8%	58.7%	59.7%	—	33.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	56.7%	51.1%	0.1%	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	58.1%	58.1%	48.8%	0.0%	33.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	66.4%	61.9%	51.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	70.2%	66.9%	57.4%	42.6%	36.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	61.5%	67.5%	48.7%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	69.3%	64.4%	70.5%	44.6%	39.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.9%	77.9%	74.7%	52.8%	—	39.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	87.8%	81.8%	61.4%	60.1%	41.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	83.8%	57.5%	—	31.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	73.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	74.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	49%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	67.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗