KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

49%

49%

40%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

EPSNO 32.2¢Risks 32.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.20u · EPS −32.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00	86.5%	52.2%	91.1%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	86.5%	52.2%	91.1%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	86.5%	52.2%	91.1%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	86.5%	52.2%	91.1%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	86.5%	41.0%	91.4%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	86.5%	41.0%	91.4%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	86.5%	41.0%	91.4%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	86.5%	41.0%	91.4%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	81.8%	41.0%	91.4%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	81.8%	42.1%	91.4%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	81.8%	42.1%	91.4%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	81.8%	42.1%	91.4%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	81.8%	42.1%	89.7%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	81.8%	42.1%	89.7%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	81.8%	42.1%	89.7%	65.9%	36.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	89.4%	42.1%	89.7%	65.9%	78.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	89.4%	42.1%	89.7%	65.9%	78.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	89.4%	42.1%	89.7%	65.9%	78.1%
2026-10-13T21:42:57+00:00	89.4%	42.1%	89.7%	65.9%	78.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	89.4%	42.1%	89.7%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	89.4%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	89.4%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	89.4%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	69.1%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	69.1%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	69.1%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	69.1%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	69.1%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	69.1%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	69.1%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:09+00:00	69.1%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	78.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	71.4%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	81.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	71.4%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	81.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	71.4%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	81.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	71.4%	42.1%	95.4%	58.1%	81.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:10+00:00	71.4%	42.1%	95.4%	34.0%	81.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:32+00:00	71.4%	23.5%	79.0%	34.0%	81.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	71.4%	23.5%	79.0%	34.0%	81.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	71.4%	23.5%	79.0%	34.0%	81.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	61.9%	23.5%	79.0%	34.0%	81.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	62.4%	23.6%	78.6%	34.1%	81.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00	90.3%	40.2%	97.1%	51.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	90.3%	40.2%	97.1%	51.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	90.3%	40.2%	97.1%	51.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	90.3%	40.2%	96.0%	51.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	90.3%	40.2%	96.0%	51.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:47+00:00	90.3%	40.2%	96.0%	51.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	89.4%	40.2%	96.0%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	89.4%	40.2%	96.0%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	89.4%	40.2%	96.0%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	89.4%	40.2%	96.0%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	89.4%	40.2%	96.0%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	89.4%	40.2%	95.4%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	89.4%	40.2%	95.4%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	89.4%	40.2%	95.4%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	92.3%	40.2%	95.4%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	92.3%	40.2%	95.4%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	92.3%	40.2%	95.4%	48.9%	48.9%
2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00	92.3%	40.2%	95.4%	48.9%	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	73.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	74.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	49%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	67.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗