KDCA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

68%

66%

40%

30%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

HRESNO 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.65u · HRES −47.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	14.1%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	16.8%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	76.9%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	28.8%	74.0%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	46.5%	57.0%	7.9%	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	23.7%	39.2%	27.9%	—	33.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	53.0%	40.2%	64.9%	—	33.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	62.5%	31.6%	50.0%	—	10.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	7.6%	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	47.5%	13.8%	41.7%	—	17.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	26.7%	28.8%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	29.9%	27.7%	36.3%	—	14.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	25.7%	35.1%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	11.0%	30.6%	25.9%	—	9.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	19.0%	25.3%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	28.7%	33.0%	21.8%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	14.0%	28.2%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	25.9%	26.8%	11.3%	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	28.8%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	34.1%	21.3%	16.9%	—	6.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	26.7%	19.0%	0.1%	—	4.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	22.4%	20.7%	9.0%	0.2%	5.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	29.3%	21.6%	9.7%	—	6.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	36.5%	24.6%	13.7%	10.6%	7.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	24.8%	13.5%	—	6.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	71.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	72.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	67.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	65.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗