KDCA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

68%

66%

40%

30%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.3¢Risks 52.35u

HRESNO 47.7¢Risks 47.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.65u · HRES −47.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:10+00:00	83.6%	58.4%	93.8%	62.4%	54.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:32+00:00	83.6%	37.3%	84.7%	62.4%	54.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	83.6%	37.3%	84.7%	62.4%	54.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	83.6%	37.3%	84.7%	62.4%	54.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	81.3%	37.3%	84.7%	62.4%	54.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	81.3%	37.3%	84.6%	62.4%	55.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:01+00:00	81.3%	39.6%	84.6%	62.4%	55.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	81.3%	39.6%	84.6%	62.4%	55.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	81.3%	39.6%	84.6%	62.4%	55.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	81.3%	39.6%	77.6%	62.4%	55.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	81.3%	39.6%	77.6%	62.4%	55.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	81.3%	39.6%	77.6%	62.4%	55.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	70.9%	39.6%	77.6%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	70.9%	39.6%	77.6%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	70.9%	39.6%	77.6%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	70.9%	39.6%	77.6%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	70.9%	39.6%	77.6%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	70.9%	39.6%	75.1%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	70.9%	39.6%	75.1%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	70.9%	39.6%	75.1%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	68.5%	39.6%	75.1%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	68.5%	39.6%	75.1%	29.6%	66.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	68.5%	39.6%	75.1%	29.6%	66.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	71.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	72.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	67.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	65.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗