KDCA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

16%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.55u · EPS −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	28.4%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	2.8%	23.8%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	6.7%	10.9%	0.2%	—	2.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.5%	4.1%	2.0%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.3%	3.8%	12.5%	—	2.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.0%	1.9%	5.5%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	4.1%	0.3%	3.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.0%	1.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.1%	0.9%	1.7%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.7%	1.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.9%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	0.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	0.8%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	18%	70.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	70.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	66.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗