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KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
74%
EPS
65%
AIFS
59%
ICON
45%
HRES
35%
Consensus
59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.75u
VS
HRESNO 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.25u · HRES −45.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-10-15T07:48:57+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-15T07:48:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T07:48:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-15T07:48:57+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00IFS HRES: 35.3% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T07:48:57+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:0010-15 07:4810-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:48:57+00:0059.1%65.0%74.2%35.3%44.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:0059.1%65.0%74.2%35.3%44.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:0059.1%65.0%74.2%35.3%44.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:0059.1%65.0%74.2%35.3%44.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:0059.1%65.0%74.2%35.3%44.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 274%70.0°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble65%68.0°F3.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single59%67.8°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend55%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON45%65.2°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES35%64.1°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗