KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

65%

59%

45%

35%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

HRESNO 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.25u · HRES −45.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	88.4%	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	72.2%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	15.9%	44.6%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	73.1%	42.3%	49.3%	—	35.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	68.3%	6.4%	37.8%	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	26.4%	8.4%	64.9%	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	52.4%	46.8%	67.7%	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	7.9%	52.4%	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	45.8%	54.2%	55.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	40.7%	54.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	68.6%	58.7%	45.6%	—	34.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	61.5%	65.8%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	56.4%	60.9%	35.6%	—	32.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	51.9%	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	58.7%	56.8%	42.3%	—	37.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	58.9%	57.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	50.0%	60.2%	29.4%	—	36.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	73.0%	66.5%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	73.6%	66.9%	45.6%	27.3%	39.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	61.1%	0.1%	—	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	70.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	67.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	45%	65.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	64.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗