KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

83%

62%

46%

33%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.8¢Risks 62.80u

EPSNO 37.2¢Risks 37.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.20u · EPS −37.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	85.1%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	66.4%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	12.1%	38.0%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	67.0%	35.6%	42.3%	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	61.6%	4.4%	31.0%	—	12.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	20.5%	5.8%	57.6%	—	17.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	44.4%	39.0%	60.3%	—	21.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	5.3%	44.3%	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	37.7%	45.8%	46.7%	—	25.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	32.6%	45.7%	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	60.4%	50.0%	37.1%	—	26.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	52.7%	57.1%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	47.2%	51.8%	27.4%	—	24.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	42.5%	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	49.0%	47.1%	33.0%	—	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	49.0%	47.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	39.8%	50.0%	21.2%	—	27.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	63.5%	56.3%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	63.9%	56.5%	35.1%	19.0%	29.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	50.0%	0.0%	—	25.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	71.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	71.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	67.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	66.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗