KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

83%

62%

46%

33%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.8¢Risks 62.80u

EPSNO 37.2¢Risks 37.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.20u · EPS −37.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:20+00:00	84.7%	22.2%	92.2%	36.7%	61.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:54+00:00	84.7%	22.2%	94.3%	36.7%	61.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	84.7%	22.2%	94.3%	36.7%	61.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	84.7%	22.2%	94.3%	36.7%	61.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00	80.7%	22.2%	94.3%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	80.7%	22.2%	94.3%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	80.7%	22.2%	94.3%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	80.7%	22.2%	94.3%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T10:34:55+00:00	80.7%	22.2%	94.3%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:36+00:00	80.7%	26.9%	89.4%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	80.7%	26.9%	89.4%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	80.7%	26.9%	89.4%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	82.6%	26.9%	89.4%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	82.6%	26.9%	89.4%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	89.4%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	89.4%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	89.4%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	88.9%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	88.9%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:47+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	88.9%	41.1%	56.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	88.9%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	88.9%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	88.9%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	88.9%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	88.9%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	87.7%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	87.7%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	82.6%	28.0%	87.7%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	82.0%	28.0%	87.7%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	82.0%	28.0%	87.7%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	82.0%	28.0%	87.7%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00	82.0%	28.0%	87.7%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:12+00:00	82.0%	28.0%	87.7%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	82.0%	28.0%	90.0%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	82.0%	28.0%	90.0%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	82.0%	28.0%	90.0%	44.6%	47.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	83.3%	28.0%	90.0%	44.6%	61.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	83.3%	28.0%	90.0%	44.6%	61.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	83.3%	28.0%	90.0%	44.6%	61.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	83.3%	28.0%	90.0%	44.6%	61.1%
2026-10-20T10:52:59+00:00	83.3%	33.3%	92.2%	46.1%	61.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	83.3%	33.3%	92.2%	46.1%	61.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	83.3%	33.3%	92.2%	46.1%	61.1%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	83.3%	33.3%	92.2%	46.1%	61.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	83.3%	33.3%	92.3%	46.1%	62.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00	83.3%	33.3%	92.3%	46.1%	62.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	71.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	71.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	67.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	66.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗