KDCA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

83%

61%

32%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.9¢Risks 62.90u

HRESNO 37.1¢Risks 37.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.10u · HRES −37.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	50.0%	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	22.0%	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	21.7%	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	54.0%	76.2%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	58.4%	89.5%	79.1%	—	74.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	79.0%	76.3%	81.1%	—	56.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	27.0%	82.1%	66.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	84.1%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.8%	65.5%	83.2%	73.2%	—	42.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	37.2%	58.1%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	45.8%	88.4%	58.3%	—	32.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	35.8%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	30.7%	74.5%	60.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	31.0%	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	25.1%	68.6%	33.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	39.7%	65.7%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	53.9%	57.7%	33.9%	63.4%	18.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	59.9%	—	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	66.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	65.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	62.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	61%	62.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	59.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗