KDCA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

83%

61%

32%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.9¢Risks 62.90u

HRESNO 37.1¢Risks 37.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.10u · HRES −37.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:51:12+00:00	79.0%	88.2%	92.7%	21.8%	40.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	79.0%	88.2%	91.9%	21.8%	40.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	79.0%	88.2%	91.9%	21.8%	40.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	79.0%	88.2%	91.9%	21.8%	40.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	83.2%	88.2%	91.9%	21.8%	60.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	83.2%	88.2%	91.9%	21.8%	60.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	83.2%	88.2%	91.9%	21.8%	60.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	83.2%	88.2%	91.9%	21.8%	60.9%
2026-10-20T10:52:59+00:00	83.2%	87.8%	93.9%	31.9%	60.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	83.2%	87.8%	93.9%	31.9%	60.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	83.2%	87.8%	93.9%	31.9%	60.9%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	83.2%	87.8%	93.9%	31.9%	60.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	93.9%	31.9%	60.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	93.9%	31.9%	60.9%
2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00	83.3%	89.7%	93.9%	31.9%	60.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	66.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	65.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	62.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	61%	62.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	59.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗