KDCA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

61%

55%

43%

11%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

HRESNO 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.75u · HRES −52.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	44.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	27.8%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	8.1%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	7.5%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	28.2%	51.3%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	31.1%	70.8%	54.2%	—	48.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	52.9%	49.3%	55.8%	—	28.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	8.4%	56.1%	36.5%	—	22.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	58.5%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	34.5%	56.4%	42.9%	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	12.6%	27.0%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	17.3%	63.9%	26.5%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	11.1%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	8.3%	41.3%	26.9%	—	5.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	8.1%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	5.5%	33.0%	8.6%	—	2.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	11.3%	29.2%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	19.0%	21.8%	8.2%	26.3%	3.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	22.6%	—	—	2.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	66.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	55%	66.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	65.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	58.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗