KDCA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

61%

55%

43%

11%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

HRESNO 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.75u · HRES −52.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:27:59+00:00	45.1%	41.2%	96.2%	62.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	45.2%	41.2%	96.1%	62.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	45.2%	42.1%	96.1%	62.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	45.2%	42.1%	96.1%	62.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	45.2%	42.1%	96.1%	62.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	45.2%	42.1%	96.7%	62.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	45.2%	42.1%	96.7%	62.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	45.2%	42.1%	96.7%	62.8%	54.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	28.3%	42.1%	96.7%	62.8%	57.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	28.3%	42.1%	96.7%	62.8%	57.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	28.3%	42.1%	96.7%	62.8%	57.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	28.3%	42.1%	96.7%	62.8%	57.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	28.3%	42.1%	96.7%	56.8%	57.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	28.3%	42.1%	93.2%	56.8%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	28.3%	42.1%	93.2%	56.8%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	28.3%	42.1%	93.2%	56.8%	57.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	23.8%	42.1%	93.2%	56.8%	57.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	23.8%	42.1%	93.2%	56.8%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	23.8%	42.1%	93.2%	56.8%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	23.8%	42.1%	93.2%	56.8%	57.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	59.5%	41.9%	72.5%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	59.5%	41.9%	79.2%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	59.5%	41.9%	79.2%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	59.5%	41.9%	79.2%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	59.5%	41.9%	79.2%	22.0%	31.2%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	74.8%	41.9%	79.2%	11.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	74.8%	41.9%	79.2%	11.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	74.8%	41.9%	79.2%	11.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	74.8%	41.9%	79.2%	11.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	74.8%	42.7%	83.5%	11.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	74.8%	42.7%	83.5%	11.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	74.8%	42.7%	83.5%	11.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	74.8%	42.7%	83.5%	11.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	61.1%	42.7%	83.5%	11.0%	54.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	66.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	55%	66.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	65.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	58.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗