KDCA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

45%

24%

22%

14%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.4¢Risks 35.45u

HRESNO 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.55u · HRES −64.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	18.0%	38.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	19.9%	57.7%	40.3%	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	38.5%	35.0%	41.3%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	3.9%	40.9%	23.4%	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	43.0%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	21.2%	40.5%	28.1%	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	6.0%	15.3%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	8.7%	47.5%	14.8%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	4.9%	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	3.4%	25.5%	14.6%	—	1.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	3.2%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	2.0%	18.4%	3.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	4.6%	15.4%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	8.6%	10.2%	3.0%	13.1%	0.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	10.5%	—	—	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	68.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	66.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	64.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	62.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	60.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗