KDCA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

45%

24%

22%

14%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.4¢Risks 35.45u

HRESNO 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.55u · HRES −64.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	14.4%	26.0%	86.4%	44.5%	49.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00	14.4%	26.0%	86.4%	44.5%	49.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	14.4%	26.0%	82.7%	44.5%	49.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	14.4%	26.0%	82.7%	44.5%	49.2%
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00	25.3%	26.0%	82.7%	26.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	25.3%	26.0%	82.7%	26.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	25.3%	26.0%	82.7%	26.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	25.3%	26.0%	82.7%	26.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	25.3%	26.0%	82.7%	26.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	25.3%	22.1%	75.3%	26.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	25.3%	22.1%	75.3%	26.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	25.3%	22.1%	75.3%	26.7%	61.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	55.9%	22.1%	75.3%	27.0%	61.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	55.9%	22.3%	75.3%	26.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	55.9%	23.6%	75.3%	26.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	55.9%	23.6%	75.3%	26.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	55.9%	23.6%	66.5%	26.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	55.9%	23.6%	66.5%	26.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	55.9%	23.6%	66.5%	26.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	55.9%	23.6%	66.5%	26.7%	61.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	57.3%	23.6%	66.5%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	57.3%	23.6%	66.5%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	57.3%	23.6%	66.5%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	57.3%	23.6%	66.5%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	57.3%	23.6%	56.8%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	57.3%	23.6%	56.8%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	57.3%	23.6%	56.8%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	57.3%	23.6%	56.8%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	44.9%	23.6%	56.8%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	44.9%	23.6%	56.8%	14.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	44.9%	23.6%	56.8%	14.1%	22.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	68.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	66.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	64.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	62.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	60.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗