KDCA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.5¢Risks 4.23u

EPSNO 91.5¢Risks 45.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.77u · EPS −45.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:00+00:00	2.0%	0.4%	34.7%	8.3%	16.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	34.7%	8.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	34.7%	8.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	34.7%	8.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:05+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	34.7%	8.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	37.7%	8.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	37.7%	8.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	2.1%	0.4%	37.7%	8.4%	16.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	37.7%	8.4%	17.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	37.7%	8.4%	17.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	37.7%	8.4%	17.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	37.7%	8.4%	17.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	37.7%	6.2%	17.8%
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	20.5%	2.4%	16.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	20.5%	2.4%	16.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	20.5%	2.4%	16.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	20.5%	2.4%	16.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	20.5%	2.4%	16.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	10.7%	2.5%	16.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	10.8%	2.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	10.8%	2.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	10.8%	2.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	6.7%	2.4%	16.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	17%	69.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	69.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	68.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	63.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗