KDCA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

66%

45%

37%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.7¢Risks 62.70u

EPSNO 37.3¢Risks 37.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.30u · EPS −37.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	29.2%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	69.9%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	5.8%	58.1%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	67.7%	69.5%	33.0%	—	47.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	45.6%	57.3%	14.0%	—	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	56.8%	53.0%	35.8%	—	42.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	67.7%	72.6%	54.8%	69.8%	54.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	68.8%	—	—	58.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	69.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	69.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	66.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	62.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	62.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗