KDCA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

66%

45%

37%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.7¢Risks 62.70u

EPSNO 37.3¢Risks 37.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.30u · EPS −37.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	81.2%	50.0%	80.9%	33.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	81.2%	50.0%	80.9%	33.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	81.2%	50.0%	80.9%	33.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	81.2%	50.0%	80.9%	33.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	81.2%	35.5%	80.5%	33.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	81.2%	35.5%	80.5%	33.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	81.2%	35.5%	80.5%	33.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	81.2%	35.5%	80.5%	33.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	84.8%	35.5%	80.5%	33.8%	31.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00	84.8%	35.5%	80.5%	33.8%	31.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	84.8%	30.9%	80.5%	33.8%	31.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	84.8%	30.9%	80.5%	33.8%	31.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	84.8%	30.9%	86.3%	33.8%	31.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	84.8%	30.9%	86.3%	33.8%	31.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	84.8%	30.9%	86.3%	33.8%	31.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	86.3%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	86.3%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	86.3%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	86.3%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	86.3%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	89.1%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	89.1%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	89.1%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	89.1%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	89.1%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	89.1%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	89.1%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	89.1%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:54+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	86.8%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	86.8%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	89.2%	30.9%	86.8%	48.8%	76.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00	85.0%	30.9%	86.8%	45.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	85.0%	30.9%	86.8%	45.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	85.0%	30.9%	86.8%	45.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	85.0%	30.9%	86.8%	45.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:55+00:00	85.0%	30.9%	86.8%	45.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:36+00:00	85.0%	36.9%	88.5%	45.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	85.0%	36.9%	88.5%	45.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	85.0%	36.9%	88.5%	45.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	87.0%	36.9%	88.5%	45.2%	66.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	87.1%	36.9%	88.5%	45.2%	66.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	69.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	69.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	66.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	62.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	62.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗