KDCA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

73%

69%

44%

42%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.2¢Risks 65.25u

EPSNO 34.8¢Risks 34.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.75u · EPS −34.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	19.7%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	57.8%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	2.8%	44.6%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	54.2%	56.3%	21.4%	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	31.7%	42.7%	7.4%	—	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	41.7%	38.0%	22.8%	—	28.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	52.4%	57.9%	39.0%	54.8%	39.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	53.3%	—	—	42.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	70.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	68.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	68.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	64.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	64.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗