KDCA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

90%

60%

25%

22%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

ICONNO 43.1¢Risks 43.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.10u · ICON −43.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	68.7%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	27.0%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	5.7%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.7%	1.9%	64.5%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	63.1%	42.3%	9.9%	—	45.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	83.0%	69.0%	42.0%	39.9%	54.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	66.0%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	75.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	69.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	64.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	59.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗