WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDCA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
91%
AIFS
90%
HRES
60%
EPS
25%
ICON
22%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 56.9¢Risks 56.90u
VS
ICONNO 43.1¢Risks 43.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.10u · ICON −43.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:56+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:56+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:56+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:34:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:0090.4%25.0%91.4%60.4%22.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0090.4%25.0%91.4%60.4%22.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0090.4%25.0%91.4%60.4%22.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0090.4%25.0%91.4%60.4%22.4%
2026-10-19T10:34:56+00:0090.4%25.0%91.4%60.4%22.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 291%75.0°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single90%75.0°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES60%69.2°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend55%68.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble25%64.8°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON22%59.9°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗