KDCA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

84%

71%

62%

27%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

EPSNO 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.55u · EPS −40.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	63.1%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	22.0%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	4.0%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	1.3%	58.1%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	56.3%	35.6%	7.2%	—	38.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	78.0%	62.3%	35.0%	33.0%	47.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	58.9%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	75.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	74.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	74.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	70.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	66.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗