KDCA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

84%

71%

62%

27%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.5¢Risks 59.45u

EPSNO 40.5¢Risks 40.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.55u · EPS −40.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:36+00:00	87.1%	25.9%	87.6%	54.3%	19.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	87.1%	25.9%	87.6%	54.3%	19.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	87.1%	25.9%	87.6%	54.3%	19.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	83.9%	25.9%	87.6%	54.3%	19.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	84.0%	25.9%	87.6%	54.3%	19.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:15+00:00	84.0%	26.8%	87.6%	54.3%	19.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	84.0%	26.8%	87.6%	54.3%	19.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	84.0%	26.8%	87.6%	54.3%	19.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	84.0%	26.8%	93.2%	54.3%	19.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	84.0%	26.8%	93.2%	54.3%	19.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:47+00:00	84.0%	26.8%	93.2%	54.3%	19.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	85.6%	26.8%	93.2%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	85.6%	26.8%	93.2%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	85.6%	26.8%	93.2%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	85.6%	26.8%	93.2%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	85.6%	26.8%	93.2%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	85.6%	26.8%	92.1%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	85.6%	26.8%	92.1%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	85.6%	26.8%	92.1%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	84.4%	26.8%	92.1%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	84.4%	26.8%	92.1%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	84.4%	26.8%	92.1%	62.2%	70.8%
2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00	84.4%	26.8%	92.1%	62.2%	70.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	75.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	74.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	74.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	70.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	66.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗