KDCA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

79%

63%

43%

21%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.1¢Risks 54.15u

EPSNO 45.9¢Risks 45.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.85u · EPS −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	51.2%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	13.9%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	1.9%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	0.5%	44.6%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	42.3%	23.5%	3.5%	—	26.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	65.7%	47.8%	22.6%	21.0%	33.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	44.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	43.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	75.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	79%	76.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	72.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	71.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	69.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗