KDCA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

48%

34%

18%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.9¢Risks 27.85u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +72.15u · EPS −72.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	23.3%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	3.0%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	16.3%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	14.1%	5.4%	0.4%	—	6.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	30.4%	16.5%	4.8%	4.2%	8.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	13.9%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	55%	76.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	75.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	73.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	69.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	67.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗