KDCA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

78%

59%

56%

50%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.50u

ICONNO 28.5¢Risks 28.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.50u · ICON −28.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	23.6%	—	34.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	52.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	16.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	75.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	57.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	36.6%	—	40.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	56.6%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	76.7%	22.3%	72.4%	37.4%	38.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	71.0%	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	65.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	76.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	69.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	50%	68.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261027-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗