KDCA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

28%

24%

19%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

EPSNO 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.30u · EPS −69.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	4.0%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	16.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	33.5%	—	6.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	17.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	6.9%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	15.9%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	2.6%	27.7%	6.6%	6.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	25.6%	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	19.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	59%	76.8°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	68.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	69.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	69.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261027-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗