KDEN / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

11%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.3¢Risks 13.30u

WN2NO 86.7¢Risks 86.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.70u · WN2 −86.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T04:30:52+00:00	45.5%	58.8%	14.0%	18.1%	39.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00	45.5%	58.8%	32.1%	18.1%	39.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	45.5%	58.8%	32.1%	18.1%	39.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	45.5%	58.8%	32.1%	18.1%	39.8%
2026-10-11T07:32:31+00:00	20.1%	58.8%	32.1%	30.7%	39.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	20.1%	58.8%	32.1%	30.7%	39.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	20.1%	58.8%	32.1%	30.7%	39.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	20.1%	58.8%	32.1%	30.7%	39.8%
2026-10-11T10:34:12+00:00	20.1%	58.8%	32.1%	30.7%	39.8%
2026-10-11T11:20:10+00:00	20.1%	56.4%	6.6%	30.7%	39.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	20.1%	56.4%	6.6%	30.7%	39.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	20.1%	56.4%	6.6%	30.7%	39.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	50.8%	56.4%	6.6%	30.7%	39.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	50.8%	56.3%	6.6%	30.8%	39.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:41+00:00	10.8%	36.6%	3.0%	21.2%	23.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	10.8%	36.9%	3.0%	21.2%	23.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	10.8%	36.8%	3.0%	21.2%	23.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	10.8%	36.8%	5.1%	21.2%	23.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	10.8%	36.8%	5.1%	21.2%	23.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	10.8%	36.8%	5.1%	21.2%	23.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	14.8%	36.8%	5.1%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	14.8%	36.8%	5.1%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	14.8%	36.8%	5.1%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	14.8%	36.8%	5.1%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	14.8%	36.8%	8.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	14.8%	36.8%	8.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	14.8%	36.8%	8.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	14.8%	36.8%	8.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	14.4%	36.8%	8.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	14.4%	36.8%	8.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	14.4%	36.8%	8.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	7.7%	56.2%	61.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	7.7%	56.2%	61.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	6.9%	56.2%	61.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	6.9%	56.2%	61.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	6.9%	56.2%	61.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	6.9%	56.2%	61.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	6.9%	56.2%	50.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	6.9%	56.2%	50.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	6.9%	56.2%	50.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	6.9%	56.2%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	22.8%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	13.2%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	13.2%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	13.2%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	13.2%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	13.2%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	13.2%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	13.2%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	13.2%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	10.6%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	3.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	10.6%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	3.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	10.6%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	3.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	10.6%	47.5%	3.5%	21.0%	3.5%
2026-10-14T10:34:19+00:00	10.6%	47.5%	3.5%	9.8%	3.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	10.6%	25.6%	0.8%	9.8%	3.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	10.6%	25.6%	0.8%	9.8%	3.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	10.6%	25.6%	0.8%	9.8%	3.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	11.1%	25.6%	0.8%	9.8%	3.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	11.0%	25.8%	0.8%	9.8%	3.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.3114
IFS Ensemble	26%	58.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0666
National Blend	18%	58.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0317
AIFS Single	11%	56.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0121
IFS HRES	10%	56.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0096
ICON	4%	55.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0012
WeatherNext 2	<1%	54.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261016-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗