KDEN / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

11%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.3¢Risks 13.30u

WN2NO 86.7¢Risks 86.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.70u · WN2 −86.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	13.2%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	7.3%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	25.4%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	31.1%	19.4%	1.1%	—	39.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.0%	10.3%	10.3%	—	42.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	15.5%	0.2%	18.9%	—	22.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.2%	4.7%	8.1%	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	15.7%	45.0%	37.7%	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.3%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	13.6%	57.0%	11.3%	—	9.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	31.0%	49.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	14.4%	60.9%	9.0%	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	41.5%	69.1%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	54.9%	52.9%	22.5%	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	62.8%	44.0%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	42.8%	45.9%	9.8%	—	10.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	37.5%	55.3%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.7%	27.3%	3.1%	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	8.7%	21.4%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.4%	19.1%	2.2%	3.1%	0.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.7%	40.5%	5.1%	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.0%	20.8%	1.3%	3.7%	0.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.6%	26.9%	1.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	12.0%	0.9%	1.9%	0.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	8.1%	1.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	4.7%	0.8%	1.8%	1.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	3.4%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.5%	0.4%	1.1%	0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	1.0%	0.8%	—	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.3114
IFS Ensemble	26%	58.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0666
National Blend	18%	58.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0317
AIFS Single	11%	56.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0121
IFS HRES	10%	56.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0096
ICON	4%	55.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0012
WeatherNext 2	<1%	54.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261016-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗