KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

28%

28%

20%

20%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 40.0¢Risks 40.05u

WN2NO 60.0¢Risks 59.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.95u · WN2 −59.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	29.6%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	6.9%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	33.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.1%	5.9%	—	14.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	14.6%	10.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	11.9%	15.9%	11.9%	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	4.5%	10.8%	1.1%	—	12.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.4%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	4.5%	2.1%	16.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	22.2%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	23.7%	5.3%	23.7%	—	14.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	29.2%	13.7%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	31.3%	23.2%	37.6%	—	21.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	38.2%	15.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	34.9%	32.1%	42.8%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	38.5%	52.1%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	39.2%	61.8%	36.1%	0.0%	27.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	32.6%	54.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	40.8%	57.0%	35.2%	—	34.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	34.7%	63.0%	34.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	32.0%	70.2%	26.6%	43.8%	30.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	32.5%	66.3%	31.4%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	28.4%	64.4%	30.7%	46.0%	33.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	44.4%	70.0%	37.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	45.7%	62.8%	35.8%	55.8%	41.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	38.1%	59.0%	44.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	30.3%	59.4%	27.6%	48.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	53.3%	67.6%	46.7%	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	95%	78.0°F	0.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0023
IFS HRES	61%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1552
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
IFS Ensemble	28%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5127
AIFS Single	28%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.5184
ICON	20%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6432
WeatherNext 2	20%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.6480

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗