KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

28%

28%

20%

20%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 40.0¢Risks 40.05u

WN2NO 60.0¢Risks 59.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.95u · WN2 −59.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	17.5%	26.6%	5.3%	54.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	17.5%	26.6%	8.3%	54.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	17.5%	26.6%	8.3%	54.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	17.5%	26.6%	8.3%	54.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	17.5%	26.6%	8.3%	54.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	21.6%	26.6%	8.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	21.6%	26.6%	8.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	21.6%	26.6%	8.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	21.6%	26.6%	8.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	21.6%	26.6%	7.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	21.6%	26.6%	7.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	21.6%	26.6%	7.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	22.3%	26.6%	7.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	22.3%	26.6%	7.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	22.3%	26.6%	7.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	22.3%	26.6%	7.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	22.3%	26.6%	7.3%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	22.3%	26.6%	14.4%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	22.3%	26.6%	14.4%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	22.3%	26.6%	14.4%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	22.3%	26.6%	14.4%	58.7%	37.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	22.4%	26.6%	14.4%	58.7%	21.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	22.4%	26.6%	14.4%	58.7%	21.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	22.4%	26.6%	14.4%	58.7%	21.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	22.4%	26.6%	14.4%	58.7%	21.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	22.4%	30.0%	14.3%	58.7%	21.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	22.4%	30.0%	14.3%	58.7%	21.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	22.4%	30.0%	14.3%	58.7%	21.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	22.4%	30.0%	14.3%	58.7%	21.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	19.5%	30.1%	14.3%	60.6%	21.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:17+00:00	28.0%	28.4%	12.8%	60.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	28.0%	28.4%	19.5%	60.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	28.0%	28.4%	19.5%	60.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	28.0%	28.4%	19.5%	60.6%	19.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	95%	78.0°F	0.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0023
IFS HRES	61%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1552
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
IFS Ensemble	28%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5127
AIFS Single	28%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.5184
ICON	20%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6432
WeatherNext 2	20%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.6480

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗