KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

26%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 13.5¢Risks 13.50u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +86.50u · EPS −86.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	19.3%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	10.7%	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	45.5%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	80.6%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	3.8%	72.0%	1.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	44.9%	0.4%	—	7.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	1.4%	3.8%	2.8%	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	1.7%	8.1%	30.9%	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	2.6%	0.4%	31.5%	—	12.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	2.8%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	1.3%	1.4%	15.6%	—	11.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	0.8%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	2.0%	0.7%	8.6%	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	3.2%	0.3%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	18.3%	0.6%	12.6%	—	18.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	11.0%	0.4%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	11.8%	0.1%	9.8%	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	10.6%	0.1%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	8.5%	0.1%	14.9%	72.7%	7.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	18.3%	0.1%	20.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	14.0%	0.0%	6.5%	—	6.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	9.7%	0.0%	5.8%	—	4.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	12.4%	0.0%	3.5%	73.4%	2.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	16.6%	0.0%	3.5%	—	3.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	14.1%	0.0%	4.0%	73.9%	2.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	25.3%	0.0%	5.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	25.6%	0.0%	7.8%	58.6%	1.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	20.2%	0.0%	2.4%	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.7%	0.0%	0.9%	51.6%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	31%	34.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0955
WeatherNext 2	26%	34.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0666
IFS HRES	26%	35.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0650
AIFS Single	11%	37.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0114
ICON	9%	37.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0077
IFS Ensemble	1%	36.1°F	1.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001
NWS forecast	<1%	42.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Denver freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗